The Concept Edit
In 1917 the USA entered the First World War. This timeline explores if the US didn't intervene, and the Spring Offensive was allowed to continue. The Two Eagles in the title refers to Germany and Austria-Hungary, the two nations who reaped most of the benefits.
POD (January 1917) Edit
The Zimmerman Telegram goes off without a hitch for the Germans, even though Mexico's response is indecisive, and they say they will only consider the alliance for now. This leads to a second Telegram (which barely makes it without being caught by British naval forces) which expands the territory that would be given to include former Alta California. Mexico still is indecisive, but more in favor, and ponders it's options.
Do to no US declaration of war, Germany actually gets to enforce Brest-Livotsk. They create their puppets in the East, including Baltia, Ukrainia and Belorusia, along with a Polish Herrschaft. Danzig is decided to be formed as an autonomous city do to local demand. The map is outlined, and over the next few months these regions actually become organized, and fulfill the terms of the treaty. Germany is ready to turn West, with over 2 million troops and uncountable other devices of war heading towards France in late February of 1918, who has so far held strong at the border and kept Belgium from collapse.
Mexican Response Edit
On February 2nd, 1918 Mexico reported that they would not declare war on the USA, but would not tell them of the telegrams either. Germans accepted the loss and moved on.
Plans had been developed for a renewed push into France beginning in March, when all forces from the East would be transferred West. As in OTL the Offensive begins as a success, with Operation Michael being a slight German victory, but having to be stalled on April 5th do to lack of supply heads. The Battle of the Lys lasted a whole 22 days, with many battles within the bigger picture. Germany ultimately had to call off the offensive on the 29th with 348,300 casualties. Germany was once again stuck in a stalemate in the West. They devised the Third Battle of the Aisne, and carried through with it on the morning of May 27th 1918 when the Germans began a bombardment (Feuerwalze) of the Allied front lines with over 4,000 artillery pieces, followed by poision gas and then finally the true offensive. The Germans had now been advancing within 56 kilometres (35 mi) of Paris and didn't show signs of stopping. That did change, however, as supplies dwindled once again and on June 3rd the offensive was told to halt where it was. The Germans had captured 50,000 Allied soldiers and over 800 guns by 30 May 1918, all of which was being used by the Germans against their former allies and friends. The Germans made the prisoners their own army, and were sure they were going to make a damn good use of them. On 6 June 1918, despite the prisoners and weapons the Germans had gained, following many successful Allied counter-attacks, the German advance had to be halted on the Marne, much as the "Michael" and "Georgette" offensives had in March and April of that year. Finally, there was the Second Battle of the Marne (15 July – 6 August 1918). This is where no American intervention plays a huge part in the war. In OTL the Americans were instrumental in pushing the Germans back and destroying any hopes of the offensive succeeding, but in this TL they aren't there. The Germans begin the battle on 15 July 1918 when 23 German divisions of the First and Third armies—led by Bruno von Mudra and Karl von Einem—assault the French Fourth Army under Henri Gouraud east of Reims. In This TL they drive the hopeless French back over half a kilometer in 2 days. They also had split the French in two, and were now going to destroy the two halves one at a time. This is completed by August 2nd, but resistance doesn't completely cease until August 3rd. These battles have opened up the way to the Northern Shore of France, and to Calais, where in this TL one of the world's most shocking and gruesome war crimes was committed, or as the Germans considered it, The Battle of Calais. At approximately 2:23AM, on August 6th, 1918, 10,431 Germans marched on a small, unnamed French Garrison of a mere 273 men, and shot Poison Gas straight into the building the French troops were sleeping in. They then rushed the fort, finding many French troops still alive. They tortured the French Troops and mutilated them in ways unknown to man, cutting little chunks of skin off of their faces with their guns' Bayonets, slicing through their eyes, but leaving them alive to suffer, and worst of all, one man had his genitals cut clean off, and actually fed to him. No one in the Fort lived however, and by 7:30AM all of them had succumbed to the torture and died. Soon after at 2:23PM of the same day, on the main front near where Aisne was fought, the Germans began the Battle of Villers-Cotterêts, with Allied forces having lost all hope and putting up minor resistance, and with the Germans having been freshly resupplied, they began pushing ahead. The Germans had now, with excess troops fresh from the back lines of the Austrian battlefield against Italy numbering 85,000, and the German and Allied POW troops already, nearly 300,000 men to fight with; the resupplies also gave them a total of over 2300 guns to rain hell with, along with 1680 brand new German tanks, A7Vs, which were a new technology to the Germans. The offensive was an unprecedented success neither side could have seen coming. The Battle only lasted for 3 days, as on August 9th the Allies could take no more of the onslaught. Death tolls for the Allies were 139,871 men. Germans lost just 17,026 men in the offensive do to the tanks and artillery.
Allied Refusal to surrender, Paris Shelling and Siege of Paris (August 10th, 1918) Edit
At 9:23AM on August 10th Paris heard the first booms. Germans had gotten in range (only a little over 2 miles) away from Paris and were beginning to Shell the city. Civilians ran to their basements, as more and more thunderous booms shook Paris. At one point it was like a constant thunder, with no ending or time in between, just one constant roar of an entire artillery's might. Soon the roar ended, and all fell dead silent. The attack had killed over 123,000 civilians, although there has never been an official figure. Some half a million more were injured. Allied Forces all around were destroyed, all fortifications and most trench lines were little more than a pile of rubble, bodies, mud, and blood. It's estimated over 600,000 allied soldiers died, it's unknown how many other war devices were destroyed or at least heavily damaged. 27 German A7V tanks soon rolled into Eastern Portions of Paris along with over 100,000 German soldiers. The War was unofficially over.
Allied Surrender and Armistice signed (August 12th, 1918) Edit
The Allies Surrendered at 12:30PM on August 12th. The Allies saw no other choice, the Germans had secured all of East Paris, with West Paris only held by a string. In the (half-destroyed by Artillery Shells) Palace of Versailles, an Armistice was signed by all parties. German citizens didn't really celebrate the victory, they were rather humbled by how many they'd lost. The Kaiser came over the Radio (a relatively new invention at the time which only a few German citizens had) and made a speech (to which there were more Germans listening via) and said that
"Well this is a victory, it is also a defeat to the morale of our troops, and a blow to the lives of many in our nation. We will celebrate the victory, but also morn the losses."
And so it was that Germany had won the war. While a treaty was yet to be worked out, the War was officially over.
Berlin Peace Conference (August 20th, 1918) Edit
The Berlin Peace Conference was the meeting of the victorious Central Powers following the end of World War I to set the peace terms for the defeated Allies following the armistices of 1918. It took place in Berlin in late 1918 and involved diplomats from more than 29 countries. They met, discussed and came up with a series of treaties ("Berlin Peace Treaties") that reshaped the map of Europe and the world, and imposed financial penalties on the Allies.
At the center of the proceedings were the leaders of the three "Great Powers": Chancellor Prince Maximilian of Baden of Germany, and Minister-President Heinrich Lammasch of Austria-Hungary and Prime Minister Vasil Radoslavov of Bulgaria, with Mehmed Talaat Pasha of Turkey being the next most powerful figure. The newly Communist Russia was invited to attend, but refused, feeling it unnecessary do to Brest-Livotsk, which was agreed with by the Central Powers. Numerous other nations did send delegations, each with a different agenda. Kings, prime ministers and foreign ministers with their crowds of advisers rubbed shoulders with journalists and lobbyists for a hundred causes, ranging from independence for their countries to women's rights.
For six months Berlin was effectively the center of a world government, as the peacemakers wound up bankrupt empires and created new countries. The most important results included a punitive peace treaty that declared Serbia guilty, weakened the French military, and required them to pay all the costs of the war to the winners. The Conference also created a demilitarized zone that France was not to arm, which consisted of all but some of the Western-most parts of present day Grand Est and all of modern day Franche-Comté. Germany was allowed to pass troops through the demilitarized area. The Eastern half of Belgium is annexed by Germany. Serbia was made a Austrian puppet, with Montenegro being completely annexed by Austria-Hungary. Bulgaria annexed some Eastern-most portions of Serbia and the Ottomans regained Italian Libya and northern portions of British Egypt, linking the former regions of the Empire once again. Japan was silently in the corner. It suffered no penalties; in fact, to encourage good relations between the Central Powers and Japan, Japan gained the Pacific Islands it claimed, but in exchange Germany's Chinese Colonies were to be unclaimed by Japan. Japan agreed to this arrangement. When it was all said and done, Europe's map was completely redrawn, and the British Empire would soon collapse in the next few decades.
Long term effects of the war to end all wars (1919-1943) Edit
Even though the first years saw few of the terms of the Berlin Conference come to effect, The demilitarized zone in France really became enforced by August 1919 and the first of the yearly reparation payments went to Germany from the Allies on January 1st 1920, they would continue until all 100 billion dollars was re-payed. The Great Depression doesn't occur because the USA never enters the war. However, for the British Empire, from the end of the war, it's years were limited. By 1930 Britain had lost Egypt, Sudan, all of it's Dominions. By 1935 the only remaining colonies were the British Raj and Hong Kong. The Raj would stay part of the Empire until 1947, when a large independence movement saw British control end with the Indian Independence Act. British Hong Kong was handed over to China in 1951, ending the British Empire except for a few Oversees Territories. The French Empire collapsed at the same rate as OTL, hanging on surprisingly long, until 1980. Today the French Fifth Republic is the official government of France. The USSR has never been the Empire it dreamed of, and has been restrained to being a Secondary Power. The USA is still isolationist, and still has the Philippines as a colony. They have Protectorates throughout Central America and the Caribbean, including the most populous and prosperous, Cuba. The Puppets of Germany have also become independent, with Baltia being the first in 1937, Belarusia in 1941 and Ukrainia in 1943. All remain in the Central Powers. Kaiser Wilhelm II died in 1941, leaving Kaiser Wilhelm III as the German Kaiser. He would begin a new system in Germany that involved the Prince becoming what a Chancellor was IOTL. Chancellor Oskar, the other surviving son of Wilhelm II, is given the position.